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Sunday, July 13, 2014

The Temporal Loop, Islamic Caliphate, and Other Daily Realities



 Introduction

When I devised analytical tools based on the systems logic, I identified phenomenon of a peculiar singularity. For a while, I will refer to it as to the temporal loop, because it can be recognized through time–space–complexity settings, or in the historical perspective. I concluded that the concept of the singularity/temporal loop might facilitate
a/ comprehension of the past and the present
b/ identification of the set of the possible futures for the systems/establishments that compose the actuality and define life and death of the many.
To illustrate the concept in work, I offer description of some events and then, their analysis.

Part I. The Islamic Caliphate

In 2000–2005, I lived and worked in Washington DC, in which I moved for the sake of the library and better (than Boston’s winter) weather. As a researcher, I was granted privilege of admission to the Library of Congress that in a beginning of the twenty–first century had reputation of a possessor of the great collection of books. In this time, I wanted to develop the comprehensive analytical tool based on the set of assumptions, which I named systems logic.
So, I read the books, and moved from client to client, from one temporary job to another: they gave me opportunities
a/ to perceive, to identify, and to analyze systems behind particular doctrines and outlook of different authors, corporate rules and policies, offices, behavior of the personnel I observed, and data I processed
b/ to comprehend the past and the present of the identified systems
c/ to envision the set of possible futures of the identified systems, which could become the actuality through taken or ignored opportunities of development, identified or overlooked latent processes leading to collapse, failures to identify the current threats, capacity of foreseeing the future threats, and so on.
In 2004, one of such temporary clients was a small think–tank devoted to the interests of the US in the Middle East and to the interests of the Middle East in the US. It was situated in old building penetrated with eerie air of the mysteries of the East. With such backdrop as dusty streets of the nation capital, it’s inner small and secluded garden imparted reminiscence of oasis. It was stuffed with retired diplomats, foreign nationals who received asylum in the US, and professionals who made it operational. One of such professionals (and my temporary boss) was CFO. She arranged my work place in her office, and sometimes favored me with her opinions; we even had short discussions concerning the world affairs. As a farewell courtesy, I wrote for her a small article concerning possible development of the organization for financial health of which she was responsible.
I am free to publish excerpt*1* from my work of 2004: the excerpt neither contains information relevant to client’s business nor conveys any client’s confidential information; I did not transfer copyrights; I did not receive any pay for it. This part of work is a general framework, which any observer/system with interests and problems related to the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia [[MENAA]] might take into consideration.
For instance, later, I found some similar points of view in The Iraq Study Group Report of 2006 [1]. Then, the article published in December 2012 [2] confirmed that the Leadership of the US came to the similar conclusion: the US Army has to demonstrate respect to the Islam and religious beliefs and customs [[even those incompatible with the apparent and officially accepted beliefs and values of the Western civilization]] of the native population of the Islamic countries.
So, in 2004, I knew that the war in Iraq would result in failure to achieve the purposes, which were openly postulated as the main reasons for the war. This failure was officially recognized in December 2011 [3].
Furthermore, if to take into consideration
a/ current escalation of military conflicts in MENAA
b/ establishment of the Islamic State [10, 11, 12, 13] or the Caliphate
[[the Caliphate as it is in [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9],
or Empire as a manifestation of the clandestine Center D*1*]]
in pursuit of “mastership of the world” [7] and “new world order” [9]
c/ public opinion concerning atrocities committed by all participants of all current conflicts,
frustration concerning peace efforts, and hopelessness to awake remnants of humanity and mercy
d/ scales of propaganda campaigns targeting population of all regions of the world,

it might be concluded that
1/ the developing military confrontation between the Palestinian state and the state of Israel inflicts more harm than it is taken into consideration by the politicians of the West
2/ the comparison of the total sum of consequences for the people of each of the conflicting states [[firstly human suffering, images of dead and wounded children and adults, grieving women, crowds in cemetery, destruction of fragile homes and last few possessions of already impoverished and deprived of normal conditions of life Palestinian people]] contributes into the overall sum of frustration, anger, and hatred, which eventually might reconcile population of many countries of the world with the idea of ultimate destruction of Israel
3/ the Palestinians people have been made victims and hostages for the political cause and propaganda purposes, because the accumulated wealth and potential of Arab oil–harvesting countries to influence all ruling parties, coalitions, and governments of all countries of the world could be applied for overall improvement conditions of life of Palestinian people, as well as for establishing the permanent peace between relatives (offspring of the same forefathers) – Arabs and Jews, brothers by blood –  long time ago.
The current conflict, although open confrontation will not last long, indicates how the war, of which I wrote two years ago in my post @ this Blog*2*, might be initiated.
However, a chance still exist that, if not stopped, current conflict still could develop into World War III according to scenario mentioned in another post @ this Blog*3*. For instance, the information was published that it was an attempt to destroy Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona with rockets [14]. On the other hand, even if such an attempt had place, the successful attacks have no significant chance, because the purpose of the current and future wars is not the Chernobyl– or Fukushima–like desert in the Middle East: in Israel – resulting from destruction of Dimona, and in Arabic peninsula  – resulting from retaliating destruction of the Islamic holy places.
Besides, even if the information that the fighters of the Islamic State already are present in Gaza [15]  is the actuality, it would be reasonable to expect that this final war will not begin until the Islamic State [[further, IS]] completes its initial purposes:
1/ establishment of the core territories on which IS would operate, and which currently, include parts of Iraq and Syria
2/ appropriation of oil fields, refineries, and other reserves, which apparently would provide funds for growth and development of the military and other subsystems of IS
3/ development and re–defining of religious–ideological–political platform, on which IS would justify its purposes, attract human reserves, and actualize strategy of the struggle for the world–wide domination.
In other words, the first task of IS would be
structurization of the chaotic reality,
which now is the Islamic world divided on different,
some apparently irreconcilable and hostile,
sects, groups, nations, races, affiliations, memberships in different unions and blocs, and so on
into the conquering army
the system focused on the defeat and subjugation of any enemy world–wide.

Some of the methods of structurization already have been disclosed [16], some will be revealed in the Future; all of them aim to the main purpose to establish the monolith: indestructible and unbeatable system/weapon for the world–wide quest, after which, if successful, the world–wide Islamic Empire or Caliphate will be revealed in all its completeness [[probably, even including still hidden now Center D*1*, which coordinates world–wide strategy and development, a part of which is the current IS]].
As of today, it looks that the process of structurization will take some time and therefore, might provide valuable opportunities for the IS’ targets
a/ to prepare to the war with a real chance of annihilation
b/ to prepare to submission with a real chance of transformation into the unreservedly obedient and totally controlled subjects of the Islamic Caliphate
c/ to intervene with the interim purposes of the Center D*1*, firstly, by reversing the processes of assimilation of political, educational, social, and other life–maintaining institutions of the Western countries by the Islamists and agents of the Center D
d/ to attempt to annihilate IS during the preparatory stages, before creation of the monolithic army/system focused on war for the world–wide domination is completed.
One of the first and mandatory steps to become prepared for any of these opportunities [[a, b, c, d]] is to obtain understanding

1/ what makes the idea of Islam and its world–wide domination so attractive,
that the recruiting campaigns are so successful, especially in the Western countries
2/ why Islam continues its rise to the position of the domineering religion of the world.

Without such understanding and its implementation into the strategy and tactics of war, or resistance, or cooperation, or submission – whatever the choice might be, none of the existing political, social, religious and other establishments, which sustain the Western civilization, has any chance of success and survival.

To be continued. Next – Part II.

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Notes:

*1* Excerpt fromX Institute: A Possibility of Development,May 17, 2004, prepared by Alice Savitsky of The  AEHESIA® Service. Consulting and Research in Business and Science: Systems Logic, Optimization of Systems

“…General Framework

The struggle for the world–wide domination and absolute power became the most persistent sign of developing civilizations. Such a struggle is not restricted with a military confrontation: e.g., one state vs. another state/group of states. The common pattern of the war for the global dominion includes
a/ the strategic Center, which might consist of the state, group of states, empire, global corporations, or a group of seemingly unconnected people and establishments
b/ the religious, philosophical, and ideological foundation
c/ the material foundation: wealth, infrastructure, the potency to influence global and local markets, weapons.
Typically, the Center conducts its activities at three levels:
1/ intellectual – strategy; the methods and means of choice, acceptance, and achievement of the purposes through the influence on internal (domestic) and external (foreign) politics of the states, the influence on the markets and financial institutions, use of the psychological and physical forces of persuasion and coercion intended
p       to subdue the opponents and to secure their physical and psychological submission
p       to influence the mind and to transform the conquered people into the willingly obedient subjects
p       to maintain loyalty of the subjects
p       to provide the necessary level of psychological and social comfort, which would prevent revolts, civil disobedience, revolutions, terrorism, and guerilla war
2/ psychological – religion, ideology, social values; the psychological methods of persuasion and coercion, e.g., such as propaganda, introduction and fostering of the shared artificial worlds/myths/symbolic sets of beliefs and values, which might gradually substitute the original religion, yet adequately convey the purposes of the Center (therefore, disclose and then, reproduce the essence, purposes, and potential of the Center in the mind of targeted people), desirable patterns of behavior for the subjects and militants
3/ physical – military forces, weapons, oppressive, defensive, and other structures through which the Center utilizes own resources and resources of other systems for achievement of own purposes.
Historically, the most widely used set of the methods of achievement of the world domination was based upon the physical force of coercion; however, over–reliance on the physical force and military power resulted in defeat and destruction of many societies, states, empires, and other systems.
Until the beginning of the twentieth century, the wars at psychological level were conducted mostly through fear; the main threats included torture, humiliation, painful and shameful death, and deprivation of life–sustaining supplies. However, these methods of coercion proved to be ineffective. At the same time, propaganda and other methods of deceit and psychological coercion, which were concealed under the promises of prosperity and advantages of the absolute power and domination over the targeted social groups, states, nations, and their resources, have secured success of the bolshevist revolution and Adolf Hitler’s ascent to the power (yet, with such consequences as destruction of the Russian Empire and World War II).
If to judge by the results (e.g., a degree of achievement of desirable purposes), the European thinkers debilitated with the Aristotelian dialectic – logic of simplification, applied the unsophisticated and ineffective intellectual methods. These methods were not only insufficient for achievement of the absolute power and world domination; they provided the opportunity for development of the Islamic quest for establishment of the world empire, which began with the defeat of the Crusaders, advanced to the conquest of Constantinople, Spain, and other European, Asian, and African countries. At the present time, the following results were achieved:
1/ Islam gained the position of the second largest world religion, which now possesses the places where the most holy treasures–symbols of two other religions were situated: Judaism – the Temple Mount in Jerusalem; Christianity – the building that in the Past accommodated the Temple of the Holy Wisdom of God (Hagia Sophia) in Istanbul
2/ the Islamic world developed the unprecedented abilities to influence the world economy (oil) and dominate the financial markets: it already has accumulated the resources sufficient to exercise control over any country of the world
3/ the Islamic world has developed and successfully utilizes the ultimate weapon: terrorism based on the system of recruiting, training, and use of human beings transformed into non–thinking executors willing to sacrifice own life for the ideals propagated by their superiors and for the purposes defined by their superiors.
Such a failure of the European strategic thought is a result of acceptance of the Aristotle’s political concepts (for instance, man is a social animal–property of the divinely established state), arithmetical–geometrical theology, philosophy, and ethics (e.g., moral values are defined by physical pain and pleasure), materialism, and logic of simplification, which degrade and incapacitate the human intellect. As the result, the decision–makers literate with the Plato–Aristotle’s utopias became incapable to comprehend the complexity of the real Universe; instead, they acquired
a/ an inability to comprehend other religions, philosophy, the manner of thinking, psychology, and consequences of the religious, national, and social values accepted by other nations and states
b/ an inability to create the purposeful and efficient whole – the system capable of acquiring and retaining the absolute power within the world divided by religious, racial, national, ethical differences
c/ an inability to identify the most effective points of impact and utilize all available methods and resources at all levels.
If a single key to success in the struggle for the absolute power and world domination ever existed, it probably would be the ability to transform the mind and conscience of the opponents according to the needs of the conqueror. The main factor in any war is not the physical force, which destroys or subdues bodies of opponents and deprives them of material and other resources. The main factor in any successful endeavor (any war as well as a successful business enterprise) is the ability to influence the mind with such results as control of thinking and manageability of behavior of subjects– subordinates.
At the present phase of the struggle for world–wide domination, four main players or centers of power might be detected:
1/ Center A – the US, which currently possesses the most advanced military power and apparent economical might
2/ Center B – the group of European states, which undergoes the stage of re–structuring, unification and accumulation of the resources needed for the manifest struggle for global domination
3/ Center C – the remnants of the communist bloc, which undergoes latent re–structuring and accumulating of resources needed for opposition to other Centers: the US, developing union of the European states, and the Islamic states; Center C supports and might secretly initiate any terrorist or other kind of hostile activity toward the Centers A and B as well as cooperate with the lowest executive levels of the Center D
4/ Center D – the clandestine center, which directs and coordinates actions of the Islamic world.
The Center D, which controls the Islamic societies and states, is the most serious opponent at the present:
a/ it has accumulated the unprecedented human, financial, and other resources
b/ it has developed the most powerful and effective controls over thinking and behavior of its subjects
c/ it utilizes a wide spectrum of methods: from economical influence through terrorism.
However, terrorism is just a tip of an iceberg – the easily detectable or manifest weapon, while the actual foundation includes
1/ the ability to exercise total control over the mind and conscience of its subjects
2/ techniques of transformation of human beings into the ultimate weapon of destruction based upon the traditional contempt to the value of human life, rights, and freedom. This contempt resulted from acceptance of the Aristotelian political, social, and ethical concepts and their incorporation into the philosophical and strategic foundation of the quest for absolute power.
At the strategic level, use of any method by the Center D might be expected, including temporary unions with the Centers B and C against the Center A, as well as the manifest and concealed hostile actions toward the Center A.
It is possible to conclude that at the present stage of war and with the methods currently applied by the US, the Center D is practically invincible. Such invincibility might be the result of the following factors:
1.        the unification of its subjects on the basis of the shared religious and national values and deep sense of humiliation, which stems from the centuries of military conflicts and confrontation with the Western civilization as well as from the contemporary problems (e.g., the Palestinian crisis, Iraq). The wounded national and religious pride already developed into the sense of incompatibility with the Western culture, Western values, Judaism, and Catholicism, which is identified with Christianity. Although within the Islamic world, many groups with conflicting interests exist, the dominant feature of the Present is the unification against non–Islamic states and their values. This unification facilitates mobilization of human resources for the war with the US
2.        the widely recognized purpose of revenge through achievement of the absolute power and world domination with consequent suppression of the Western religious and other values and destruction of the Western civilization: religions, culture, social and political structures, especially those which protect human rights and freedoms inconsistent with the traditional Islamic values and beliefs
3.        due to the unique structure of the Islamic world (in particular, the dominant role of religion, which sustains all vital governmental and social structures), any conflict against any Islamic state becomes the war against religion, while the war against any religion cannot be won until it is possible to find or to produce human beings willing to sacrifice own life for the sake of their beliefs: physical extermination or coercion of some inevitably leads to increased opposition of the others
4.        the ability to manufacture and utilize the ultimate weapon of destruction: human beings transformed into the non–thinking executors of any order of their superior and made ready to die for the imposed/assumed religious and national values (suicide–bombers and other terrorists)
5.        the strategy of military and other hostile actions against the opponents developed during last seven centuries of the West–East confrontation. As it could be inferred from the tactics of the present terrorist operations, the Center D accepted and elaborated the most powerful techniques of war, which were created by the sages of the ancient China (for instance, “chaosDstriking sword” technique), practiced by the clandestine orders in ancient Persian Empire and later, in the papal empire, by the opponents of the forcefully imposed papal religious and social beliefs heretical for the Christians 
6.        the practically undetectable networks of self–regulating terrorist cells and the supporting units implanted into the US, European, Asian, and African countries and capable of creation of economical and political chaos, destruction of infrastructure, and acts of terror including political assassinations and mass murder of civilians
7.        the uncountable financial and other resources accumulated during the centuries of Islamic dominance at the Middle East and used for penetration into and influence on all important economical centers and organizations of the  world.
From the other angle of consideration, the US most likely will not be able to win the present war; for instance, 
a/ the theological prospective: any system (whichever purposes it pursues – self–defense, intelligence gathering, submission, intimidation, or the others) that practices (Afghanistan, Iraq) or tolerates intentional humiliation and torture of any human being (Palestine) whichever crimes it incriminates to the imprisoned enemies, arises against God in Whose image human beings have been created. As it could be inferred from the history of humankind and especially, vanished empires, such a system inevitably will be wiped out from the face of the Earth
b/ strategic perspective: the inability to determine and apply the winning strategy, the inability to foresee and prevent hostile actions and acts of terror, the inability to protect own secrets and methods of war from disclosure, and so on
c/ psychological perspective: the inability to influence opinion of the allies, independent countries, opponents, and enemies, while the war against any country of the Islamic world can be won only through the sophisticated psychological methods resulting in substitution of the Western values for the traditional Islamic values
d/ physical power: while officially the war with Iraq is considered as the local conflict or the next step in the global war with terrorism, it is obvious that Iraq already became the arena for the global contradiction–clash between two superpowers: manifest – the US and – still undetectable for some – the Center D, which controls the Islamic world. Even with all the might of contemporary weapon of destruction, the US will not win this war.

Conclusion: at the contemporary stage of the war with the Center D, it would be unrealistic to expect the positive outcome for the US unless the US re–directs the war strategy and begins intensive activities at the psychological and strategic levels. If the current policies and methods of war and ideological and political strategies are not reconsidered, the most probable scenario for the US might include:
          economical degradation resulting from
1.        high cost of direct involvement in the current (Afghanistan, Iraq) wars and conflicts as well as in the wars expected in the nearest Future (Iran, Palestine, Syria, Libya, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Philippines, and other Asian and African states opened for influence of the Center D)
2.        high cost of expenditures for the National Security Department, which however, still is not able to protect the US borders from illegal immigrants, therefore, from a possibility of undetectable penetration of terrorists
3.        imminent attacks of terrorists: mass murders, political assassinations, destruction of the infrastructure, economical, financial, computer, and social crimes committed by the existing terrorist nets within the US and against the US interests in other countries
4.        loss of human and economical resources, which (loss) would result from military operations and acts of terrorism
          the economical, political, and social instability and unrest due to impoverishment and moral devastation through the consequences of war and acts of terror.
The most vulnerable points of the US strategy and policies, which might result in defeat in the war with terrorism, include inefficient methods of psychological war. The highly desirable changes of the current strategy should target improvement of the US image as the result of the change of the manifest attitude toward the Islamic world, manifested respect to the Islamic traditions and culture, and in particular, the decision of the Palestinian issue. In spite of all the value that Israel has for the US as the local contra–power capable of restraining the Islamic aspirations for the total control of the Middle East, this decision must be peaceful, urgent, and acceptable for the Islamic countries.
Consequently, the only opportunity to survive and to finish the war against the Islamic world might be reconciliation of the differences and conflicts (at least temporary), with the purpose to begin the peaceful co–existence and co–operation. Such reconciliation and peace would open the Islamic countries for the Western influence, as well as would facilitate eradication of the terrorist networks and other weapons of the Center D…”
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End of Excerpt
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*2*  See post Jerusalem, the U.S., and Israel @ this Blog, June 5, 2012

 *3* See post Mr. President, Syria, World War III, and the Future @ this Blog, September 2, 2013
  
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References:

[1] The Iraq Study Group Report of 2006, co–chaired by James A. Baker, III, and Lee H. Hamilton.
[2] PRUDEN: Another low bow to radical Islam By Wesley Pruden. The Washington Times. Friday, December 14, 2012
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/14/pruden-another-low-bow-to-radical-islam/
[3] Ending 9 Years of Conflict, Panetta Formally Shuts Down U.S. War in Iraq by By AP / LOLITA C. BALDOR Thursday, Dec. 15, 2011
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2102515,00.html
[4] Qaeda chief rejects nation states, U.N. as conflict mediator. DUBAI, (Reuters).
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=31803
[5] Other Zawahiri supports Qaeda “Caliphate” call By Abdul Sattar Hatita
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=31824
[6] Understanding Egypt: What Is a Caliphate? Posted on February 6, 2011 at 9:50pm by  Scott Baker
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/understanding-egypt-what-is-a-caliphate/
[7] Muslim Brotherhood Declares 'Mastership of World' as Ultimate Goal by Raymond Ibrahim. Jihad Watch. January 12, 2012
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/11016/muslim-brotherhood-declares-mastership-of-world
[8] Muslim Brotherhood Calls for a "United Arab States" with Jerusalem as its Capital by Raymond Ibrahim. Dec 20, 2011 at 1:22 pm. Cross-posted from Jihad Watch
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/2011/12/muslim-brotherhood-calls-for-a-united-arab-states
[9] The peaceful way to finish off the West. Dispatch International 22 October 2012 By Maria Celander
http://europenews.dk/en/node/60121
[10] ISIS Militants Declare Islamist ‘Caliphate’ By Karl Vick
http://time.com/2938317/isis-militants-declare-islamist-caliphate/
[11] Al Qaeda splinter group declares Islamic 'Caliphate'. Reporting by Sylvia Westall in Beirut and Ali Abdelaty in Cairo; editing by Ralph Boulton. Reuter
http://news.msn.com/world/al-qaeda-splinter-group-declares-islamic-caliphate?ocid=ansnews11
[12] Al-Qaida splinter declares new Islamic caliphate
http://www.aol.com/article/2014/06/29/al-qaida-splinter-declares-new-islamic-caliphate/20922040/?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D495132
[13] ISIS re-brands itself the Islamic Caliphate. DEBKAfile June 30, 2014, 7:57 AM (IDT)
http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/8705/
[14] Hamas aimed 7 rockets at Dimona. None hit the reactor. DEBKAfile July 9, 2014, 8:34 PM (IDT)
http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/8858/
[15] ISIS Already in Gaza Strip by Khaled Abu Toameh. July 4, 2014 at 11:45 am
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4392/isis-gaza
[16] ISIL crucifies eight rival fighters, says monitoring group. Reporting by Sylvia Westall; Editing by Stephen Powell. Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/29/us-syria-crisis-rivals-idUSKBN0F40HX20140629


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The current and previous posts might be downloaded (pdf) @ my website Systems Logic
file Cyber Defense and Systems Logic – Blog Posts, Page LIBRARY_1
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